THE WW3 CHANCE INDEX IS NOT A PREDICTION OF WAR. It is a data signal tool that measures the current weight of escalatory news signals in public media. It does not predict future events, does not access classified intelligence, and should not be used as the basis for any personal, financial, or security decisions.
1. Nature of the Index
The WW3 Chance Index is a mathematical model that aggregates publicly available news signals from international media outlets. It assigns numerical weights to geopolitical events based on a transparent, published methodology and computes a composite probability score.
This score represents a model output — not an expert assessment, not a government estimate, and not a forecast. The probability figures are the result of an algorithm applied to public data, not the judgment of military analysts, intelligence officers, or geopolitical experts.
2. What This Service Is Not
- Not a prediction service. No model can predict geopolitical events. Black swan events — by definition — cannot be anticipated by any algorithm.
- Not intelligence analysis. We have no access to classified information, diplomatic backchannels, or restricted data.
- Not financial advice. Do not make investment or trading decisions based on this index.
- Not emergency guidance. Do not use this index for emergency preparedness, evacuation decisions, or personal safety planning.
- Not government-affiliated. WW3 Chance has no affiliation with any government, military, intelligence agency, or international organisation.
- Not a news service. We summarise and classify news from third-party sources. We are not responsible for the accuracy of underlying source material.
3. Known Limitations
- The index relies on public media, which may lag real events by hours or days
- AI classification is probabilistic — individual events may be miscategorised or missed entirely
- The weighting model reflects editorial judgment, not scientific consensus or peer review
- The index cannot account for classified developments, private negotiations, or events not covered by public media
- Sudden, unpredictable events (black swans) will not be reflected until after they occur
- The 1.5%–30% probability range is a model convention, not a calibrated statistical probability
4. Media and Citation
Journalists and researchers are welcome to reference the WW3 Chance Index with appropriate attribution. When citing the index, please include the following context: "The WW3 Chance Index is a data aggregation tool based on public news signals, not an intelligence assessment or official government estimate."
Misrepresentation of this index as official intelligence, government data, or a scientific prediction is prohibited under our Terms of Service.
5. No Liability
Tileterra Systems, the operators of WW3 Chance, accept no liability for any decision made in reliance on this index. Use of the Service is entirely at your own risk. See our Terms of Service for the full liability disclaimer.
6. Emotional Wellbeing
If monitoring geopolitical risk causes you significant anxiety or distress, we encourage you to limit your use of this service and speak with a mental health professional. Information about global conflict can be genuinely stressful. This index is designed for analytical use — not for doomscrolling.